This, given the lack of a revised tariff order, impacted efficiency Consolidated PAT decreased ~15% YoY to INR2.0b in the quarter, partly supported by an improved performance at Dhariwal. Dhariwal reported profit of INR240m (v/s loss of ~INR240m in 1QFY20) on account of a new PPA signed and the pass-through of higher coal cess in tariff. Dhariwal had signed a 185MW PPA with Maharashtra in 3QFY20, and the same has been extended up to 31 Losses at DFs in Rajasthan declined to INR330m in 1QFY21, from INR530m in 1QFY20, despite lower demand. The stock trades at an attractive ~6x FY22E P/E, even as earnings visibility at Dhariwal improves, and factoring the tightening of norms at Haldia and S/A. We also expect the performances of DFs to improve as it gains a better understanding of the circles and leverages from its experience in CESCs generation assets generate healthy FCF.
We raise our FY21 EBITDA estimate by 67% to factor recovery in LME prices, Revenue declined 34% YoY (29% QoQ) to INR13.8b on a lower LME aluminum price of USD1,493/t (-17% YoY; -12% QoQ) and lower aluminum volumes. EBITDA at INR1.3b (-38% QoQ) came in above our estimate of INR81m despite lower-than-expected volumes. Reported EBITDA still declined 40% YoY on lower alumina and It reported positive EBIT at INR470m after four quarters (v/s INR3m loss last year); revenue declined to INR9.3b (-37% YoY; -18% QoQ) on lower LME prices/volumes due to the impact of COVID-19. Aluminum LME prices have recovered to pre-COVID levels and turned positive YoY. We expect NACL to benefit from lower coal prices due to improved coal availability in India and lower input commodity costs such as furnace oil, etc. We maintain our positive stance on NACL considering its integrated business model, high cash levels, and attractive dividend yield.
We expect a 4% earnings CAGR over FY2022, led by a 2.5%/3.5% sales CAGR in Specialty Pharma / Specialty Intermediates-Nutritional Products as well as a steady EBITDA margin. The earnings CAGR is partially impacted due to COVID-19-led temporary slowdown in the Radiopharma, CDMO, and Life We value JLS at 9x EV/EBITDA for the Pharma business and 4x EV/EBITDA for the LSI business, arriving at target price of INR975 on an SOTP basis. Overall, we expect a 4% earnings CAGR over FY2022, led by a 2.5%/3.5% sales CAGR in Specialty Pharma / Specialty Intermediates-Nutritional Products as well as a steady EBITDA margin. The earnings CAGR is partially impacted due to a We value JLS at 9x EV/EBITDA for the Pharma business and 4x EV/EBITDA for the LSI business, arriving at target price of INR975 on an SOTP basis.
5 September 2020 Coal Indias (COAL) 1QFY21 results highlight the impact of lower volumes/ e-auction realizations amid subdued thermal power demand. Adj. EBITDA (ex-OBR) was down 63% YoY. Muted power demand has impacted off-take and e-auction realizations. However, we expect Coal India to tide over the situation given its large cash INR190/share based on 3.5x Sep21 EV/EBITDA. 1QFY21 Adj. EBITDA (ex-OBR) was down 63% YoY to INR28b (in-line) on account of lower off-take/e-auction realizations. While FSA realization at INR1,359/t was below our est. INR1,400/t, it was offset by higher mix of e- auction volumes at 15.9mt (v/s est. Revenue declined 26% YoY to ~INR185b (v/s est.
3 September 2020 Over FY11-20, SRFs cumulative capex stood at INR84b with the company delivering revenue of 11% CAGR to INR72b. Of the total capex incurred over the last 10 years, 57% has been deployed toward Chemicals, resulting in 16% revenue CAGR to INR29.8b. Over the last 10 years, incremental revenue/EBITDA stood at INR47.1b/INR8.4b while the company incurred capex of INR56.4b over FY11- 18 (assuming lag effect of 2 years due to monetization i.e. capex of 8 years is considered for calculating ratios). Thus, translating into incremental revenue/EBITDA to capex of 0.83x/0.15x. Over the last 5 years, SRF has incurred capex of INR53b constituting 63% of the capex incurred over the last decade. Thus, capex intensity has increased in the last 5 years. Average asset turnover/fixed asset turnover for the last 10 years stood at 0.
3 September 2020 Page Industries (PAG) reported an extremely weak set of numbers in its 1QFY21 results, with a particularly stark miss on EBITDA and PAT, both of which came in at loss. Recovery has been rapid, with August nearly back at last years levels for the corresponding month. However, there is no indication that the company, which has reported flattish EPS over the past two years, has turned the corner on the path to topline and earnings growth. Maintain Employee expenses declined by 4% YoY to INR1.2b, and other expenses fell 66% YoY to INR488m. Volumes declined 69% in 1QFY21 and Average Selling Price (ASP) grew on higher athleisure sales. In 1QFY21, an INR107m provision was taken on slow-moving goods, which may be reversed later. While July had some supply chain issues, recovery was seen to near last years numbers in August.
2 September 2020 Net oil realization stood at USD28.7/bbl (v/s est. Net sales were in line at INR130b (-51% YoY). EBITDA stood at INR59b (v/s est. +26%, -61% YoY), on lower other expenditure. This was primarily due to lower travelling/employee cost, lower statutory levies and cess, and lower feedstock gas prices at Dahej petchem plant. ONGC believes that DD&A; may remain at the same levels but other costs may decline significantly, led by various cost cutting measures. Tax was higher at 45.1% (v/s est. 33.3%), due to further provisioning of Service Tax/GST on Royalty as contingent liability. The matter is listed for hearing in the second week of Sep20 before the Honorable High Court of Rajasthan.
2 September 2020 Jubilant FoodWorks (JUBI)s 1QFY21 results were weaker than expected, especially in terms of operating margins. Depreciation and interest costs were also higher than anticipated. Three events underpin higher growth and profitability for JUBI beyond the (2) the introduction of delivery charge; and (3) opportunity created by the crisis to close down 105 of its least profitable (and dine-in dependent) stores. This would lead to all-time high EBITDA margins in FY22, resulting in 33% upward revision in our EPS projections for FY22. Maintain Like-for-like (LFL) growth stood at -61.5% (this refers to YoY growth in sales for non-split restaurants opened before the previous FY). LFL growth, excluding the restaurants temporarily closed due to COVID-19, stood at - 47.3%. 24 new Dominos Pizza stores were launched (net addition of 19 stores) and four stores for Dunkin Donuts were closed down in 1QFY21. Gross margins were up by 260bp YoY to 78%.
2 September 2020 J K Cement (JKCE)s 1QFY21 result highlights market share gains for the company, led by ~50% capacity expansion in North India. While we raise our FY21E EPS by 10% to factor lower fixed costs, our FY22 estimates are largely unchanged. We reiterate on a 17% EPS CAGR over FY2022E, driven by capacity-led volume growth. 1QFY21 revenue/EBITDA/PAT at INR9.7b/INR2.2b/INR0.8b was down 27%/ 29%/ 49% YoY and was +2%/ +29%/ +57% against our estimate. Volumes declined for grey cement (incl. Total volumes fell 24% YoY to on a higher proportion of grey cement (90% v/s 85%) in the sales mix. Total cost per ton declined 4% YoY (flat QoQ) to INR4,245/t and was 6% beat on our estimate due to a 27% YoY fall in other expenses from lower fixed overheads. However, decline was partly offset by negative operating leverage and the consumption of higher cost petcoke inventory.
INR6.8b) due to Generation declined 5% YoY to 8.1BU in 1QFY21 due to the shutdown of 2 Chamera units and lower water availability. NHPC is also planning to complete the linkage of work by Oct20, thereby increasing discharge of water for Parbati-II. NHPC expects to receive INR18b from the PFC-REC scheme on completion of certain formalities for J&K.; Capex run-rate, on the other hand, is expected to increase as the company is investing/exploring new projects, which is expected to reduce FCF and drag RoEs in the near term. Generation declined 5% YoY to 8.1BU in 1QFY21 due to shutdown of two Chamera units and lower water availability. Moreover, commissioning for the project is still some time away (FY24 Capex run-rate, on the other hand, is expected to increase as the company is investing/exploring new projects, which is expected to reduce FCF and drag RoEs in the near term.
